Last week, I was in China for a conference. The economy continues to boom there; its amazing to see how much has changed since my last trip just two years ago. The skyline in Shanghai has grown immeasurably, the piracy and knock off brands have been pushed ‘underground’ (though, its still pretty easy to get a fake Rolex), and the evidence of China’s growing middle class is apparent - its almost as easy to get a real Rolex now at the many upscale shops around town. But one of the most pronounced changes is the growing pollution in Shanghai and Beijing. I only flew through Beijing, but I couldn’t even see the terminal from our plane as we taxied in. As one of my colleagues noted, you could look right at the sun, which was only a soft glow behind the yellow smog. Shanghai wasn’t quite as bad, but as we drove into the city, we all noticed our sinuses clogging and a distinct itch in the back of our throats. Another colleague attempted to take a jog in the city, but gave up after a few blocks.
So that raises the question that everyone has been asking: How is Beijing going to host the world’s premier athletic competition in a mere few months? The Chinese have instituted a decade long plan to clean up Beijing’s air, but opinions vary on how well it has worked so far (and my experience last week would suggest that it hasn’t). There are also more drastic contingencies planned, such as shutting down factories, restricting automobiles, and even seeding clouds to force rain, in an effort to “cleanse the air”. Some athlete’s aren’t so confident - one of the world’s premier marathon runners today announced that he may pull out of the Olympic due to health concerns related to the pollution.
So what’s the long term solution to the pollution in China and elsewhere around the world? Probably not restricting traffic or seeding clouds. The problem will be ultimately solved through consumer demand and engineering innovation, or green engineering . Consumer demand is what is causing the huge uptick in green products and corporate sustainability plans. Sure, there is a lot of hype out there (now called “Greenwashing“), but the net effect of all the focus on environmental sensitivity is a positive one. Even more sustainable are the discoveries and innovations in the scientific and engineering community. China’s pollution, for example, is primarily the result of coal power plants (a new plant opens in China every week to 10 days) and automobiles. Both of these industries are seeing huge investments in research to fund cleaner, more sustainable alternatives. The global investments in renewable energy reached $100B in 2006 and its projected to grow to more than $750B in the next 10 years. Research abounds in more efficient solar, wind, and even wave energy production. There is also a large investment in researching and productizing alternative fuel and zero emissions vehicles. We don’t yet know which of these innovations will prove most successful, but innovation, combined with a capitalistic system which rewards it, will ultimately triumph. Its only a matter of time before these inventions are not just a novelty, but a economically sustainable business delivering zero emissions but also better performance and lower cost of ownership than their fossil fuel predecessors. It might not be in time for the Beijing Olympics, but hopefully it will be in time to clean the air for the next generation of China’s urban population.
August 27th, 2008 at 1:19 am
China’s population of 1.3b make both maths and statistics tricky. Either way you always ended up with an astronomical huge or neglibibly small number. This is what the chinese leadership have to face daily in formulating policies and making decision. This is further reflected in a quote by Premier Wen Jiabao : “Any small problem multiplied by 1.3 billion will end up being a very big problem, and a very big aggregate divided by 1.3 billion will come to a very tiny figure.” The key lies in the “priority” at the current stage of development.
China is embarking on a path to build a “harmonious society” and interestingly in its definition (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/language_tips/2007-10/12/content_6170863.htm), one of the six main characteristcs outlined is : “harmony between man and nature”. China has also set a target date to achieve it (a very bold move) by 2020.
In terms of execution, we have seen the extent and support the chinese leadership enjoyed in doing what is neccessary to ensure the success of the olympics. We are also seeing investment being poured into “Green” initatives like “Wind Farm” (where we are already using technology to help our local chinese customers to be successful). This will not happens overnight but progressively we will see results.
One World, One Dream …..
August 28th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Just yesterday somebody forward me an article on China and wind power, I like to refer to it as it offers some not so publicized information:
“…the image of that new coal-fired power station opening every week looms large. It is hard to imagine China growing at the 10.5 per cent achieved last quarter without such stations. But how many people know that for the past couple of years, China has been shutting down its small power stations? First the 50-megawatt and lower, then the 100 MW and lower, and next the 300 MW stations. This has been driven by the central government, which is backing a new generation of coal stations that use the most advanced supercritical and ultra-supercritical clean-coal technologies…”
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/mg19926685.400-comment-chinas-green-journey.html
Does China have an issue with environmental issues that are impacting the globe, yes. Those of us grew up in the States or other developed nations are very sensitive to this. Difference is acute. But is China doing something about it, the answer is also yes. Initial results are shown, last week, in an interview, Haile Gebrselassie expressed regret over decision to pull out of the race:(http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=2631255)
It is apparent that China still has a lot cleaning up to do, some look at the progress through the skeptical lense…while I like to more optimistic, now living in China for 5 years, I have seen first-hand awareness sinking in, measures being taken, progress made. To quote the comment from NewScientist again, “…as a result of its 30-year industrialisation, China is now the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide…But focusing on such alarming statistics can be seriously misleading. A more nuanced picture is emerging, thanks to a new report by the Climate Group, an international NGO. In China’s Clean Revolution, we show a country deeply aware of its environmental problems but also of its potential to achieve a second, clean 30-year miracle…”